Prediction Markets

Polymarket real-time events, odds and arbitrage insights.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$1255012k vol
Yes18%
No82%

The “Yes” price of 0.18 implies an 18% probability, indicating no clear frontrunner in the Democratic field for 2028. With $1.25B in 24h volume, significant speculative activity exists. The high “No” price suggests markets doubt current potential nom

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

$686726k vol
Yes2%
No98%

The market prices "Yes" at $0.0195 (~2% implied probability) versus "No" at $0.9805 (~98%). With 24h volume near $687M, traders overwhelmingly expect no Republican nomination surprise in 2028, likely due to a dominant frontrunner or structural factor

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

$273133k vol
Yes94%
No6%

The market prices "Yes" at 0.94, signaling overwhelming confidence that the current PM remains in office. With 24h volume of 273M units, liquidity is robust, reflecting strong trader interest. Short-term stability is expected, though internal conflic

Brazil Presidential Election

$121526k vol
Yes0%
No100%

The market prices "No" at 99.95%, signaling overwhelming confidence in the incumbent's continued hold on power, while "Yes" trades near zero. With 24h volume exceeding 121M, liquidity is deep but the near-consensus leaves minimal arbitrage room. Howe

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$24585k vol
Yes7%
No94%

The market prices a mere 6.5% chance of the Iranian regime falling before 2027, with a 93.5% probability of survival. The 24-hour volume of ~$24.6M indicates notable interest, yet sentiment heavily favors continuity. This suggests perceived domestic

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

$23563k vol
Yes100%
No0%

The market prices "Yes" at 100% with a massive 24h volume of $23.56M, indicating extreme conviction that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold. This likely reflects diplomatic progress and de-escalation, yet such binary pricing warrants caution against

Fed Decision in September?

$21381k vol
Yes1%
No99%

The "Yes" price at 0.0095 implies a <1% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, while "No" at 0.9905 reflects overwhelming consensus for a hold. With $21.4M in 24h volume, market conviction is strong, likely driven by cooling inflation and dovis

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

$17968k vol
Yes68%
No33%

The prediction market prices a 67.5% chance that United Russia wins the most seats, up slightly from yesterday. With $17.97M traded in 24h, sentiment reflects heightened interest amid the Ukraine conflict. Despite Western sanctions, the ruling party

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

$16440k vol
Yes4%
No96%

Market pricing implies a 96.05% probability of "No," with ~$16.4M volume, signaling overwhelming trader conviction that normal traffic will not resume soon. Geopolitical tension and military standoff dominate, with liquidity entrenched in bearish exp

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

$15287k vol
Yes0%
No100%

The market prices "No" at 1.0 and "Yes" at 0.0, with 24h volume exceeding $15.28M, indicating near-certain consensus that no effective ceasefire will occur within two weeks. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, but the market shows zero probability

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

$10019k vol
Yes0%
No100%

The prediction market prices "No" at 1.0 with 24h volume exceeding $10M, signaling near-unanimous trader belief that the US will not announce an end to the Iranian blockade. With no easing of geopolitical tensions and no clear timeline, market partic

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

$5541k vol
Yes14%
No86%

The “No” option is priced at 0.855 (85.5% implied probability), signaling strong market consensus that the 2027 UCL winner will not be the current favorite. With 24h volume exceeding $5.5M, the signal is highly liquid and robust. Near-term momentum l

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

$4537k vol
Yes0%
No100%

The market assigns a mere 0.45% probability to WTI hitting the specified level by August 2026, reflecting overwhelming consensus that the event is highly unlikely. The 99.55% No price shows extreme conviction in the opposite outcome. With ~$4.5M in 2

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

$3931k vol
Yes0%
No100%

Market pricing implies a mere 0.15% chance of Bitcoin hitting the target price in August, with heavy volume concentrated in the "No" side (99.85%). Sentiment is firmly bearish, suggesting traders expect price to stay below the threshold, likely drive

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier

$3545k vol
Hanwha Life Esports0%
Gen.G100%

The market heavily favors Gen.G at a price of 1.0, while Hanwha Life Esports sits at 0.0, indicating near-certain market consensus. With a 24-hour volume of ~$3.54M, liquidity is ample and the odds are fully priced. Gen.G’s superior roster and recent

LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier

$3534k vol
DN SOOPers0%
Kiwoom DRX100%

This BO3 is a KeSPA Cup last-chance qualifier, with the market showing extreme one-sided pricing. Kiwoom DRX sits at 0.9995 while DN SOOPers trades at 0.0005, with 24h volume exceeding 3.53M tokens — capital is overwhelmingly aligned. Given the vast

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

$3116k vol
Yes99%
No1%

The market prices a 98.6% probability for the Republican winner in Florida's primary, with $3.12M in 24h volume indicating ample liquidity. This near-certainty suggests investors see negligible remaining risk; the 1.4% odds on “No” make the outcome e

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

$1682k vol
Yes0%
No100%

Market data shows the "No" option priced at 1.0 while "Yes" trades near zero, with 24h volume of ~$1.68M, indicating traders overwhelmingly believe Musk will not tweet within the specified August 2026 window. The near-zero probability suggests the ev

National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek

$1161k vol
Diana Shnaider27%
Iga Swiatek74%

Market pricing strongly favors Iga Swiatek, with an implied win probability of 73.5% versus Shnaider's 26.5%. Over $1.16M in 24h volume indicates heavy liquidity backing the Pole. Despite Shnaider's recent form, Swiatek's superior court coverage, ret

Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach

$987k vol
Lucio Ratti87%
Tai Sach14%

Market odds imply an 86.5% win probability for Lucio Ratti versus 13.5% for Tai Sach, with 24h volume near 986.9k indicating strong liquidity favoring Ratti. The prediction leans heavily toward Ratti, though a small chance of an upset remains for the

Prediction Markets | CodyQuant