Prediction Markets
Polymarket real-time events, odds and arbitrage insights.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1255012k volThe “Yes” price of 0.18 implies an 18% probability, indicating no clear frontrunner in the Democratic field for 2028. With $1.25B in 24h volume, significant speculative activity exists. The high “No” price suggests markets doubt current potential nom
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$686726k volThe market prices "Yes" at $0.0195 (~2% implied probability) versus "No" at $0.9805 (~98%). With 24h volume near $687M, traders overwhelmingly expect no Republican nomination surprise in 2028, likely due to a dominant frontrunner or structural factor
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
$273133k volThe market prices "Yes" at 0.94, signaling overwhelming confidence that the current PM remains in office. With 24h volume of 273M units, liquidity is robust, reflecting strong trader interest. Short-term stability is expected, though internal conflic
Brazil Presidential Election
$121526k volThe market prices "No" at 99.95%, signaling overwhelming confidence in the incumbent's continued hold on power, while "Yes" trades near zero. With 24h volume exceeding 121M, liquidity is deep but the near-consensus leaves minimal arbitrage room. Howe
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
$24585k volThe market prices a mere 6.5% chance of the Iranian regime falling before 2027, with a 93.5% probability of survival. The 24-hour volume of ~$24.6M indicates notable interest, yet sentiment heavily favors continuity. This suggests perceived domestic
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$23563k volThe market prices "Yes" at 100% with a massive 24h volume of $23.56M, indicating extreme conviction that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold. This likely reflects diplomatic progress and de-escalation, yet such binary pricing warrants caution against
Fed Decision in September?
$21381k volThe "Yes" price at 0.0095 implies a <1% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, while "No" at 0.9905 reflects overwhelming consensus for a hold. With $21.4M in 24h volume, market conviction is strong, likely driven by cooling inflation and dovis
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$17968k volThe prediction market prices a 67.5% chance that United Russia wins the most seats, up slightly from yesterday. With $17.97M traded in 24h, sentiment reflects heightened interest amid the Ukraine conflict. Despite Western sanctions, the ruling party
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
$16440k volMarket pricing implies a 96.05% probability of "No," with ~$16.4M volume, signaling overwhelming trader conviction that normal traffic will not resume soon. Geopolitical tension and military standoff dominate, with liquidity entrenched in bearish exp
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$15287k volThe market prices "No" at 1.0 and "Yes" at 0.0, with 24h volume exceeding $15.28M, indicating near-certain consensus that no effective ceasefire will occur within two weeks. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, but the market shows zero probability
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
$10019k volThe prediction market prices "No" at 1.0 with 24h volume exceeding $10M, signaling near-unanimous trader belief that the US will not announce an end to the Iranian blockade. With no easing of geopolitical tensions and no clear timeline, market partic
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
$5541k volThe “No” option is priced at 0.855 (85.5% implied probability), signaling strong market consensus that the 2027 UCL winner will not be the current favorite. With 24h volume exceeding $5.5M, the signal is highly liquid and robust. Near-term momentum l
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
$4537k volThe market assigns a mere 0.45% probability to WTI hitting the specified level by August 2026, reflecting overwhelming consensus that the event is highly unlikely. The 99.55% No price shows extreme conviction in the opposite outcome. With ~$4.5M in 2
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
$3931k volMarket pricing implies a mere 0.15% chance of Bitcoin hitting the target price in August, with heavy volume concentrated in the "No" side (99.85%). Sentiment is firmly bearish, suggesting traders expect price to stay below the threshold, likely drive
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
$3545k volThe market heavily favors Gen.G at a price of 1.0, while Hanwha Life Esports sits at 0.0, indicating near-certain market consensus. With a 24-hour volume of ~$3.54M, liquidity is ample and the odds are fully priced. Gen.G’s superior roster and recent
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
$3534k volThis BO3 is a KeSPA Cup last-chance qualifier, with the market showing extreme one-sided pricing. Kiwoom DRX sits at 0.9995 while DN SOOPers trades at 0.0005, with 24h volume exceeding 3.53M tokens — capital is overwhelmingly aligned. Given the vast
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
$3116k volThe market prices a 98.6% probability for the Republican winner in Florida's primary, with $3.12M in 24h volume indicating ample liquidity. This near-certainty suggests investors see negligible remaining risk; the 1.4% odds on “No” make the outcome e
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?
$1682k volMarket data shows the "No" option priced at 1.0 while "Yes" trades near zero, with 24h volume of ~$1.68M, indicating traders overwhelmingly believe Musk will not tweet within the specified August 2026 window. The near-zero probability suggests the ev
National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek
$1161k volMarket pricing strongly favors Iga Swiatek, with an implied win probability of 73.5% versus Shnaider's 26.5%. Over $1.16M in 24h volume indicates heavy liquidity backing the Pole. Despite Shnaider's recent form, Swiatek's superior court coverage, ret
Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach
$987k volMarket odds imply an 86.5% win probability for Lucio Ratti versus 13.5% for Tai Sach, with 24h volume near 986.9k indicating strong liquidity favoring Ratti. The prediction leans heavily toward Ratti, though a small chance of an upset remains for the