journal2026-08-08

Gold Long Position Review: A Perfect Trend-Following Trade

On July 15, US CPI data came in lower than expected, increasing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell rapidly after the data release, and gold (XAUUSD) started to rise from around $2420.

Trading Background

On July 15, the U.S. CPI data came in below expectations, raising market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply after the data release, and gold (XAUUSD) started to rally from around $2,420.

Trade Execution

  • Entry: July 15, 20:35 (Beijing time), long XAUUSD at 2425
  • Reason: CPI below expectations + DXY broke below 104 support + 4H chart MACD golden cross
  • Position: 0.05 lots (5 micro lots)
  • Stop Loss: 2415 (100 pips below entry)
  • First Target: 2440 (previous high resistance, +150 pips)
  • Second Target: 2455 (psychological round number, +300 pips)

    • Trade Result

    Price reached the first target of 2440 within 2 hours, and 60% of the position was manually closed (+150 pips). The remaining 40% had its stop loss moved to 2430 (breakeven). The next day, during the Asian session, price continued to rise to 2455, hitting the second target, and the remaining position was closed (+300 pips). Total profit was 240 pips.

    Analysis of Success Factors

  • Fundamental and technical confluence: favorable CPI data + technical breakout
  • Tiered profit-taking strategy: locked in profits while capturing the larger trend
  • Reasonable stop loss placement: a 100-pip stop loss for gold can withstand volatility without being easily triggered
    • ✅

    The most valuable lesson from this trade is the "tiered profit-taking + breakeven stop loss" strategy. Many times, we don't misjudge the market, but rather don't know how to manage positions after floating profits.

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